My Predictions: Final 2013

Like everybody who has a love of the Eurovision Song Contest, I've been sitting down and analyzing the running order for the final.

Here's the running order, as determined by the lovely people at SVT.

1. France

2. Lithuania

3. Moldova

4. Finland

5. Spain

6. Belgium

7. Estonia

8. Belarus

9. Malta

10. Russia

11. Germany

12. Armenia

13. Netherlands

14. Romania

15. UK

16. Sweden

17. Hungary

18. Denmark

19. Iceland

20. Azerbaijan

21. Greece

22. Ukraine

23. Italy

24. Norway

25. Georgia

26. Ireland

Of course, I'm going to be looking at my personal favorite, Anouk for the Netherlands.  Unluckily drawn into the first half, she's got a good position--the last song in the first half.   She's also between two really lousy songs--the Armenian ecoballad and the (forgive me for offending delicate sensibilities) salute to menstruation--Romania, which will hopefully make the song stand out.

Anouk   "Birds"   the Netherlands

I hope for a good result for the Dutch entry--maybe a top ten position.   I doubt Anouk can win--the song is kind of too classy for the room.  If it does, just expect me to be very, very, happy.

As for likely winners, if I were to put down some money, I'd actually go with Ukraine. 

Zlata Ognevich   "Gravity"   Ukraine

It's well placed and if performed the way it was in this clip, it's worthy of winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

And as a long shot, I'd put some money down on this song too:

Krista Sigfrieds   "Marry Me"   Finland

Hatred has turned to love on this one.  

But to be honest any number of countries songs would be worthy.   Norway, Georgia, Ireland, Italy, Greece,  France, Russia, Moldova, and Iceland are all songs that I would be happy to see win.  

Really there are only three songs that are likely winners that I don't particularly care for.

Cascada   "Glorious"  Germany

Emmilie de Forest   "Only Teardrops"   Denmark

Both of them seem way too generic to actually inspire love, but they are true fan favorites. 

Farid Mammadov   "Hold Me"   Azerbaijan

And on this one, the song is very much back burner to the fantastic gimmick.   It's like the sand lady from Ukraine a few years back.    That's not a particularly flattering comparison, but it's going to get votes.



But all of this analysis is really pointless.  I'm just looking forward to tomorrow morning--the final starts at 11 AM local time here in Alaska.   And then comes my favorite part of the Eurovision season.  The Eurovision parties to determine Alaska's Choice!

The Results: Second Semifinal 2013

Well, again I got seven out of the ten songs correct in my predictions.

Goodbye Albania, San Marino, and Israel.   Hello Iceland, Armenia, and Romania.

I must admit I found this semifinal much less exciting that the first semifinal.  You would have thought otherwise, since there were fewer obvious songs that were going to the final.  But I suppose since my favorite song wasn't in this semi, I didn't feel the personal connection.

But I did get a couple of surprises.  I wound up loving a song that I hated when I first heard it.

Krista Sigfrieds   "Marry Me"  Finland

Congratulations, Ms. Sigfrieds.  I get the song now.  I'm no longer offended; I'm completely on board.

I'm going to be perfectly honest.  I don't understand how Armenia made it through.  It wasn't a good performance and unlike the Belgian entry that I'm not particularly fond of it didn't even feel modern and fun.  In fact the lead singer went off key a bit at the end.

Dorians   "Lonely Planet"  Armenia

Block voting?  Probably.  Did it keep out better songs.  Hell yes.  But good for Armenia.  You're back in the final even with a lousy song and a lackluster performance.

Would I have preferred to see another song in?  Yes.  I loved Israel's ballad, Valentina Monetta's redemption song from San Marino, or this:

Adrian Lulgjuraj and Bledar Sejko   "Identitet"   Albania

It was so disappointing to see how poorly it looked on stage.  Had it been shot differently, the energy level would have been higher and it could have qualified.   Maybe.

But that's just the nature of Eurovision, songs you love don't make it through while songs that don't rate do.

Tomorrow, the fun begins!  The build up to Saturday's final!

My Predictions 2013: Second Semifinal

while I'm up Ship Creek without a paddle.

When looking at the second semifinal, I have to admit that the choice is a lot harder that the first semifinal.

Here are my picks for the ten songs to go to the final:

• Albania
• Azerbaijan
• Finland
• Georgia
• Greece
• Hungary
• Israel
• Malta
• Norway
• San Marino

This time there are only two real obvious choices to make it to the final--Azerbaijan and Georgia.  Both countries have "bought" their songs and they're both extremely strong.  Either of them could be contenders to win the final.

Following those two locks are three songs that are pretty much assured to make the final--Finland, Greece, and Norway.   Greece is another perennial qualifier, Finland's song is truly the only really fun pop number in the contest, and Norway's song has been another fan favorite.   I really cannot see any of them not qualifying, barring a major flub up either tonight or tomorrow.

That leaves the big group of songs that have a good shot of making it through.  I chose Albania, Hungary, Israel, Malta, and San Marino.  Any or all of them could be replaced by Armenia, Bulgaria, Iceland, Romania, or Switzerland.   All of them are of the same quality and the performances are really going to make it  or break it.  

Only two songs, the ones from Latvia and Macedonia, are the ones I can't see qualifying.  Latvia's song is not particularly good while Macedonia's...    I don't want to think about that one.  It just makes me sad that the country that provided my favorite song of last year's contest sent one of the worst songs this year.

 

The Results: First Semifinal

I'm giving up any impartiality I have this year!

I would love to be able to stay impartial, but I can't help it.  My favorite song made it to the final this year!

Anouk   "Birds"   The Netherlands

Absolute perfection as far as I'm concerned--the shots of her with the crowd waving along to the song with the stage behind her completely sold it.

Mind you I about had a heart attack watching the results.  The results are random.  Yeah, right.  They were specifically calibrated to give me a freaking heart attack.

But the real shock of the first semifinal was the absolute lock out of any countries from the former Yugoslavia.   None of the four countries from the former Yugoslavia made it through to Saturday night.  

It could be because of the new ranking of songs, where all are ranked instead of the top ten.  But when you look back at the songs from Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia, none of them were true contenders this year, because they were either poorly performed or inaccessible to Europe as a whole.

For example:

Who See   "Ingranka"  Montenegro

This is a pretty amazing performance, and perhaps the most "in your face" performance in the semifinal.  It feels fresh and modern, but outside the Balkans nobody would vote for it.

But the shock qualifier for me was another Benelux country:

Roberto Bellarosa   "Loff Keels"  Belgium

Bellarosa looked like a scared chicken when he was performing and his English pronunciation of phrases like "Love Kills" and "bitter pill" (excuse me "beater peel") make me wonder what was in the water to put Belgium's number over something like this.

Klapa s Moro   "Mižerja"   Croatia

When something like this happens, I have to remind myself it's not always about the quality of the performance, it's what sounds more popular.  So the amazing Klapa s Moro are going home while the Belgian chicken clucks another day.  (I'm not bitter.  Not one bit.)

But all in all, I'm pretty pleased with the results.  Out of the ten songs I though I would go through, seven made it.   So goodbye to Slovenia, Serbia, and Cyprus and hello to Belgium, Lithuania, and Moldova.

I am looking forward to Thursday and the second semifinal.  If the production is half as good as the production for this semifinal, it's going to be the best Eurovision Song Contest in years.

Any country who can put a fresh spin on last year's winning song

Loreen and Children of Malmö   "Euphoria"

and provide comedic relief that is actually funny gets my vote.

Lynda Woodruff  (Sarah Dawn Finer)

(Sadly they don't have her first part of her tour of Sweden isn't available online yet.  Enjoy this clip from this year's Melodifestivalen.)

If you have the time, you really should watch the entire contest--it's easily streamed from the official Eurovision website.

Now back to listening to the songs.  Maybe after another six or seven listens I can actually figure out what's going on with the Serbian entry...

Moje 3   "Ljubav Je Svuda"   Serbia

Oh.  It's about loving a douche bag.  It still doesn't explain those outfits.  And it proves that you really should have sent Marija Mihajlović.

My Predictions 2013: First Semifinal

Dreaming of Malmö

The bad thing about Eurovision for me, here in Alaska, is that it takes place so early in the day.

While Europeans are at home enjoying a night of light entertainment, I'm at the start of my work day here in Alaska.  It means I'm constantly refreshing the Internet, looking for updates while attempting to do my job.

For the most part I succeed.   But Eurovision is much more fun that making sure numbers balance on ledgers or keeping up with the latest news on health care reform.

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Enough about the joys of human resources in Alaska, you're hear to learn my choices to make the final from the first semifinal.

But after spending a few months listening and ranking these songs, it's time to give my choices on the songs I think will go to the semifinal.

• Belarus
• Cyprus
• Denmark
• Estonia
• Ireland 
• Russia
• Serbia
• Slovenia
• the Netherlands
• Ukraine

The amazing thing about this list is that there are only three that I am completely confident of making it through--Denmark, Russia, and Ukraine.  Denmark has been the favorite of many people in the Eurovision community (although not mine) and Russia and Ukraine are perennial qualifiers and the songs aren't completely horrible, so they're locks.

Ireland and Serbia are the second tier. They're likely to make it through.  Ireland has had a lot of good buzz which means people will likely vote for it.  Serbia's song is pretty terrible, but with a good placing and likely Balkan Bloc voting it will be make it through.

That pretty much leaves Belarus, Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia, and the Netherlands as my final five choices.  I have no real reason to say about these five other my choices are a combination of personal favorites and what I think Europe will vote for on Tuesday night.

I can see any of those five being replaced by Austria, Croatia, or Moldova.   All eight of those songs have an  opportunity to take the final five places.

The only three that I can't see any chance of making it through are Belgium, Lithuania, and Montenegro.  The  first two just seem lame, while the third is so "out there" that people aren't likely to get it.  (Although I must admit I love the astronauts.)

So there's my two cents on the final.   Now here comes some begging.

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Please.  Please. Please.  If you live in Europe and vote in the first semifinal, kindly consider using one of your televotes for this song.

Anouk   "Birds"   The Netherlands

You'd make a Eurovision fan who can't put in his two cents very happy.

Eurovision 2013: Moldova

I hate to say this, but Moldova has completely missed it this year.  Instead of going with something insanely upbeat and fun--the hallmark of Moldovan entries--Moldova has gone with a ballad.

Aliona Moon  "O Mie"

The wrong ballad

Cristina Scarlat  "I Pray"

I don't think I would have a problem with Ms. Moon's song if it weren't so derivative.  But when you take away the parts stolen from Sabina Babayeva's song from last year and Jade Ewan's song from back in 2009, all you'd have left is Ms. Moon singing in her knickers.   

I just can't see "O Mie" doing at all well, and it bores me to tears.

And there were so many more interesting songs that would have made me much happier if they had made it through.

Irina Kitoroagă  "L.O.V.E. Love"

Doiniţa Gherman   "Planeta e un rai"

And the saddest thing about this post is I can't put up the actual songs from the Moldovan national final in this post.  For whatever reason, they're not available online.  So if you want to see the actual performances, you should watch the national final here.  I highly recommend it, especially for the fashions.  The Moldovan costumes are pretty fabulous.

Eurovision 2013: Sweden

Last but not least, the granddaddy of Eurovision finals, Sweden.

And yet again, Sweden has following musical trends in the United States.   Two years ago they sent the Swedish Justin Bieber and last year they won with a song that was very much influenced by Lady Gaga.   Now we have this.

Robin Stjernberg   "You"

Fun. featuring Janelle Monae   "We Are Young" 

I get why Stjernberg won the contest--that hooky chorus cribbed from Fun. is catchy even when it's been recycled.  It's going to score well.  Sweden may even contend for the win. 

I just don't want to listen to it again; I've heard versions of it enough.

But as always with Swedish entries, I defer to my favorite Swedish lady, Annia W.

"His pants are ugly. He's pitchy. It's Euro-techno-pop and I'm 100% sure Sweden won't win again - which I'm sure they don't want, it's a costly affair. They're lucky they automatically qualify to participate, lol. The dancers are SUPER-cool!"

And to be perfectly honest to Annia, there wasn't much to choose from in this Melodifestivalen finals.   There were a bunch of pop songs sung by young men that all kind of blended together.



 David Lindgren   "Shout it Out"

Yohio  "Heartbreak Hotel"

And then there were the gimmick songs:



Ravillacz   "En riktig jävla schlager"

Sean Banan   "Copacabanana"

Pretty much the Melodifestivalen final was about as compelling as cottage cheese this year.   But at least Caroline af Ugglas came back and tried again.

Caroline af Ugglas   "Hon Har Inte"



She didn't make it out of the "Second Chance" round.  But at least I got to hear a singer I actually like a lot.