My Predictions: Final 2013

Like everybody who has a love of the Eurovision Song Contest, I've been sitting down and analyzing the running order for the final.

Here's the running order, as determined by the lovely people at SVT.

1. France

2. Lithuania

3. Moldova

4. Finland

5. Spain

6. Belgium

7. Estonia

8. Belarus

9. Malta

10. Russia

11. Germany

12. Armenia

13. Netherlands

14. Romania

15. UK

16. Sweden

17. Hungary

18. Denmark

19. Iceland

20. Azerbaijan

21. Greece

22. Ukraine

23. Italy

24. Norway

25. Georgia

26. Ireland

Of course, I'm going to be looking at my personal favorite, Anouk for the Netherlands.  Unluckily drawn into the first half, she's got a good position--the last song in the first half.   She's also between two really lousy songs--the Armenian ecoballad and the (forgive me for offending delicate sensibilities) salute to menstruation--Romania, which will hopefully make the song stand out.

Anouk   "Birds"   the Netherlands

I hope for a good result for the Dutch entry--maybe a top ten position.   I doubt Anouk can win--the song is kind of too classy for the room.  If it does, just expect me to be very, very, happy.

As for likely winners, if I were to put down some money, I'd actually go with Ukraine. 

Zlata Ognevich   "Gravity"   Ukraine

It's well placed and if performed the way it was in this clip, it's worthy of winning the Eurovision Song Contest.

And as a long shot, I'd put some money down on this song too:

Krista Sigfrieds   "Marry Me"   Finland

Hatred has turned to love on this one.  

But to be honest any number of countries songs would be worthy.   Norway, Georgia, Ireland, Italy, Greece,  France, Russia, Moldova, and Iceland are all songs that I would be happy to see win.  

Really there are only three songs that are likely winners that I don't particularly care for.

Cascada   "Glorious"  Germany

Emmilie de Forest   "Only Teardrops"   Denmark

Both of them seem way too generic to actually inspire love, but they are true fan favorites. 

Farid Mammadov   "Hold Me"   Azerbaijan

And on this one, the song is very much back burner to the fantastic gimmick.   It's like the sand lady from Ukraine a few years back.    That's not a particularly flattering comparison, but it's going to get votes.



But all of this analysis is really pointless.  I'm just looking forward to tomorrow morning--the final starts at 11 AM local time here in Alaska.   And then comes my favorite part of the Eurovision season.  The Eurovision parties to determine Alaska's Choice!

The Results: First Semifinal

I'm giving up any impartiality I have this year!

I would love to be able to stay impartial, but I can't help it.  My favorite song made it to the final this year!

Anouk   "Birds"   The Netherlands

Absolute perfection as far as I'm concerned--the shots of her with the crowd waving along to the song with the stage behind her completely sold it.

Mind you I about had a heart attack watching the results.  The results are random.  Yeah, right.  They were specifically calibrated to give me a freaking heart attack.

But the real shock of the first semifinal was the absolute lock out of any countries from the former Yugoslavia.   None of the four countries from the former Yugoslavia made it through to Saturday night.  

It could be because of the new ranking of songs, where all are ranked instead of the top ten.  But when you look back at the songs from Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia, none of them were true contenders this year, because they were either poorly performed or inaccessible to Europe as a whole.

For example:

Who See   "Ingranka"  Montenegro

This is a pretty amazing performance, and perhaps the most "in your face" performance in the semifinal.  It feels fresh and modern, but outside the Balkans nobody would vote for it.

But the shock qualifier for me was another Benelux country:

Roberto Bellarosa   "Loff Keels"  Belgium

Bellarosa looked like a scared chicken when he was performing and his English pronunciation of phrases like "Love Kills" and "bitter pill" (excuse me "beater peel") make me wonder what was in the water to put Belgium's number over something like this.

Klapa s Moro   "Mižerja"   Croatia

When something like this happens, I have to remind myself it's not always about the quality of the performance, it's what sounds more popular.  So the amazing Klapa s Moro are going home while the Belgian chicken clucks another day.  (I'm not bitter.  Not one bit.)

But all in all, I'm pretty pleased with the results.  Out of the ten songs I though I would go through, seven made it.   So goodbye to Slovenia, Serbia, and Cyprus and hello to Belgium, Lithuania, and Moldova.

I am looking forward to Thursday and the second semifinal.  If the production is half as good as the production for this semifinal, it's going to be the best Eurovision Song Contest in years.

Any country who can put a fresh spin on last year's winning song

Loreen and Children of Malmö   "Euphoria"

and provide comedic relief that is actually funny gets my vote.

Lynda Woodruff  (Sarah Dawn Finer)

(Sadly they don't have her first part of her tour of Sweden isn't available online yet.  Enjoy this clip from this year's Melodifestivalen.)

If you have the time, you really should watch the entire contest--it's easily streamed from the official Eurovision website.

Now back to listening to the songs.  Maybe after another six or seven listens I can actually figure out what's going on with the Serbian entry...

Moje 3   "Ljubav Je Svuda"   Serbia

Oh.  It's about loving a douche bag.  It still doesn't explain those outfits.  And it proves that you really should have sent Marija Mihajlović.

My Predictions 2013: First Semifinal

Dreaming of Malmö

The bad thing about Eurovision for me, here in Alaska, is that it takes place so early in the day.

While Europeans are at home enjoying a night of light entertainment, I'm at the start of my work day here in Alaska.  It means I'm constantly refreshing the Internet, looking for updates while attempting to do my job.

For the most part I succeed.   But Eurovision is much more fun that making sure numbers balance on ledgers or keeping up with the latest news on health care reform.

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Enough about the joys of human resources in Alaska, you're hear to learn my choices to make the final from the first semifinal.

But after spending a few months listening and ranking these songs, it's time to give my choices on the songs I think will go to the semifinal.

• Belarus
• Cyprus
• Denmark
• Estonia
• Ireland 
• Russia
• Serbia
• Slovenia
• the Netherlands
• Ukraine

The amazing thing about this list is that there are only three that I am completely confident of making it through--Denmark, Russia, and Ukraine.  Denmark has been the favorite of many people in the Eurovision community (although not mine) and Russia and Ukraine are perennial qualifiers and the songs aren't completely horrible, so they're locks.

Ireland and Serbia are the second tier. They're likely to make it through.  Ireland has had a lot of good buzz which means people will likely vote for it.  Serbia's song is pretty terrible, but with a good placing and likely Balkan Bloc voting it will be make it through.

That pretty much leaves Belarus, Cyprus, Estonia, Slovenia, and the Netherlands as my final five choices.  I have no real reason to say about these five other my choices are a combination of personal favorites and what I think Europe will vote for on Tuesday night.

I can see any of those five being replaced by Austria, Croatia, or Moldova.   All eight of those songs have an  opportunity to take the final five places.

The only three that I can't see any chance of making it through are Belgium, Lithuania, and Montenegro.  The  first two just seem lame, while the third is so "out there" that people aren't likely to get it.  (Although I must admit I love the astronauts.)

So there's my two cents on the final.   Now here comes some begging.

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Please.  Please. Please.  If you live in Europe and vote in the first semifinal, kindly consider using one of your televotes for this song.

Anouk   "Birds"   The Netherlands

You'd make a Eurovision fan who can't put in his two cents very happy.

Eurovision 2013: The Netherlands

Yet again I'm writing up a song that was chosen internally by a national broadcaster.  TROS chose to send the singer Anouk and the song "Birds".

Anouk makes a great deal of sense to send to Eurovision.  Within the Netherlands, Anouk is quite successful, with both popular and critical appeal.  A quick search of her name show multiple Saturn and TMF awards--Dutch music awards.  And for American readers, she might be best described as the Dutch Alanis Morissette.  Her albums are made up of self penned, personal songs backed by a guitar heavy band.



Anouk   "Three Days In A Row"

Her entry into Eurovision is much different than her previous work

Anouk   "Birds"

 

Instead of rock guitar and an up front stage presence, we have a song that sounds very much like a throwback to the Eurovision songs of old--a Dutch take on the French chanson that won in the very early years of the song contest.

 

It's an interesting change in her work, and this song, from her soon to be released Sad Singalong Songs, is in my wheelhouse.  She's gone from the Dutch Alanis Morissette to the Dutch Aimee Mann.  And I love Aimee Mann, so I'm going to be grabbing this album if and when it's released here in the States.

 

As for its chances at Eurovision, I can't really decide.    It's one of those songs that is either going to sink to the bottom or rise to the top.

 

Anouk is an established singer that has one awards for being the "Best Live Act", so she has the ability to command a stage and connect with an audience.   But the song is very quiet and mournful, quite different that the upbeat power ballands and dance numbers that pepper the semifinal the Netherlands is in.

 

I'm expecting it to unfairly sink beneath the dance tunes and power ballads from the rest of Europe, but I'll be delighted if it makes it into the final.